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If Beta > 1 this means that the investment's returns will move, on average, in the same direction as the market's returns, but to a greater extent.

If Beta = 1 this means that the investment's returns will move, on average, in the same direction as the market's returns, and to the same extent.

If 0 -1, to the same extent if Beta = -1, and to a greater extent if Beta < -1. If the analysis is to be believed then in times of a bull market (rising markets) investors should hold stocks with a high positive beta factor since they should outperform the market. At this time the bull market has reached its peak and those investors who held dot com companies (that had high positive beta factors) made excess returns and did far better than the relative index performances.

However in times of bear markets (falling markets) then investors should target low beta stocks since they should outperform the market.

Ever since the turn of the century, world stock markets have been very volatile. In other words there have been significant movements (up or down) in share prices. This phenomenon has been evidenced by the languish in recent years of the share prices of the dot com companies (e.g. Yahoo, Amazon etc.) and the sharp falls in the share prices of telecommunication stocks (e.g. British Telecom, Marconi etc.). Yet despite these events there is very little emphasis placed on measuring the volatility of stocks.

The aim of this outline is to explain one method of measuring the volatility namely beta factors and how investors can interpret this information. The reproach aims to state how investors can use beta factor circle geometry to their fittingness when there are political uncertainties distressful markets. Though some stockbroker firms cast the beta factors of cocksure stocks quoted in their respective stock exchanges, investors have little cloister to these figures. In more developed markets many stockbroker firms do have ingress to beta factors but it is only in recent years that investors have ballooning to this information.

BETA FACTORS:

The beta of an investment is a relative measure of the systematic risk of an investment. In other words it measures the specific risk of the company's shares relative to the market as a whole. In general, the sign of the beta (+/-) indicates whether, on average, the investment's returns move with the market or in the opposite direction to the market. The scale or value of the beta indicates the relative volatility of the particular stock.

A beta of +0.25 for instance, would indicate that on average, the investment's returns move one quarter as much as the markets do in the same direction. If the market rose by 10%, the investment would be expected to rise by 2.5% but on the other hand if the market fell by 10% the investment would be expected to fall by only 2.5%. A beta of -0.1 would indicate that on average, the investment's returns move one tenth as much as the market's do, but in the opposite direction. If the market rose by 10%, the investment would be expected to fall by 1%. Hence we can summarise a number of situations:

If Beta > 1 this means that the investment's returns will move, on average, in the same direction as the market's returns, but to a greater extent.

If Beta = 1 this means that the investment's returns will move, on average, in the same direction as the market's returns, and to the same extent.

If 0 -1, to the same extent if Beta = -1, and to a greater extent if Beta < -1. In practice it is rare to find negative beta stocks since they go headed for the trend of the market. One possible sector that could consist of negative beta stocks is the gold industry that tends to go opposite the trend shown by equity markets.

INVESTMENT STRATEGIES:

In world markets, beta factors can have a major influence on the investment strategies of investors. If the inquisition is to be received then in times of a bull market (rising markets) investors should hold stocks with a high positive beta factor since they should outperform the market. A practical example of this was in the late 1990’s concerning the dot com stocks. At this time the bull market has reached its peak and those investors who held dot com companies (that had high positive beta factors) made excess returns and did far socialize than the relative index performances.

However in times of bear markets (falling markets) then investors should target low beta stocks since they should outperform the market. An example of this can be found in the UK where two low beta FTSE stocks (Tesco and Centrica) outperformed the market in a falling market.

USING BETA FACTORS IN THE PRESENT SITUATION:

The current world political situation is probably the worst it is for many years. World markets are falling at a rapid pace. What does beta factor editorial teach us near an investment strategy in this situation? Firstly, however good a sharing is it likely that in such goings-on most will encounter falls in their share prices.

However during this time a number of contingency investments that have negative beta factors have prized in value. The prime example of this is gold. Over the past twenty years when there was a strong equity bull market, the price of gold has fallen significantly. In contingent to this shares in the gold sector have performed dangerously when compared to equities. However in the past few years it is noticeable that in the political uncertainty that has arisen in the world that the price of gold has shown material gains at a time when equity markets have recorded sharp falls.

Another lead item that has done well is oil that has seen a significant increase in its price per abundance over the past few months. In line with gold, the oil price has suffered over most of the past twenty years (at a time when equity prices were on an increase) and it is only in recent years that the oil price has shown a recovery.

CONCLUSION:

Beta factor higher algebra is a useful technique that has enabled many international investors to do satisfactory returns in the past. If one looks at the trends in world markets then one can see that in a bull market those investors that have followed a selective ambitious portfolio (i.e. including shares with beta factors of over 1 times) have generally outperformed the market.

However the wheel has changed. We are now in the stage of a bear market. The current political uncertainty has made things extremely difficult for investors. Should they get out of world markets since a conflict will hardly visibly mean falling equity prices. Or should investors move to saving clause investments with negative beta factors such as gold and oil? without all in case of a conflict these sideline will scarcely indefeasibly rise and will probably go towards the trend of equity prices. The trump will very much depend on how the current political situation develops. However investors will do well if they include gold in their investment portfolios.

Disclaimer: No responsibility for loss can be meet to any person appearance or refraining from in force as a result of material in this article.

©2004 by Andy George. All rights reserved

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