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Some days it is easy to tell, you check the volume and it is higher than average or the previous day's volume. If a stock is going to move for the day, however, you usually see volume again swing up after that initial drop.

After that first volume surge, you can check and see where the volume stands with respect to tour volume targets for the day.

Some days it is easy to tell, you moderate the volume and it is higher than average or the previous day's volume. Often, however, a stock is making the move you want it to make on account of the first hour and volume is somewhere below where you want it. How do you tell if you should enter the trade?

First, you have to know what volume you are looking for and be able to find intra-day volumes. Your stock-exchange broker is a good source. Real time services show you exact volumes. Quote.com also gives you intra-day volume and average volumes, though it is delayed at least twenty minutes.

After you can get intra-day volumes, how do you know if you are on target? As with most cases, there is no 100% foolproof method that is exact every time. As a general rule, stocks have a surge of volume in the first hour and in the last hour. If it is a calm day, volume will usually slow during the middle hours, especially at lunch. You will frequently see the morning volume surge followed by a drop off. If a stock is going to move for the day, however, you usually see volume once again swing up in correspondence to that initial drop.

After that first volume surge, you can retroflex and see where the volume stands with respect to tour volume targets for the day. If you see the stock is 40% or ascendant of the target volume, you can very gratified that it will make your target. If the stock is moving well and you have hit that volume, you can feel good upwards of entering a trade. You may be wrong, but the odds are with you. Going into the last two hours, if you see the stock start to move, you should speck the volume. If the volume is within 20%-30% of the target range, it may hit the target. With the stock moving as you want it to and volume looking good, you can again feel good anyhow entering the trade.

As you can see, there are no hard and fast rules. If the stock is showing good momentum and the volume is supporting that move by showing equal life, we feel good helter-skelter the trade.

It’s been about 6 months since I bought a basket of 5 Japanese net-nets.

A couple people have asked about how my Japanese net-nets have done. I started making these investments around April of this year. I wrote the “Buy Japan” post before buying my 5 Japanese net-nets. And it took me about a month of bidding for these micro caps to get my orders filled.

Since then, in dollar terms, the 5 stocks are up: 6.41%, 7.53%, 12.80%, 18.35%, and 20.88%.

You can use the March 16^th date of my “Buy Japan” post as a convenient way of measuring the influence the Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar exchange rate has had on the performance of those stocks. For Japanese investors, your results would obviously not include these Dollar exchange rate changes.

Let’s just say these Japanese net-nets have done better than my U.S. net-nets this year. It doesn’t matter if you are calculating returns in local currency or dollars. My Japanese net-nets have been my best performers this year.

I will re-evaluate the positions around June of next year.

I generally hold net-nets for at least a year before considering whether they should be sold. This gives them time to run.

Most people sell net-nets too fast because they dislike the underlying businesses and are not used to having such large gains in a single year.

Of course, the truth is that a net-net that rises 50% or even 100% is usually still a very cheap stock. So it’s silly to sell a net-net just because it’s gone up.

Talk to Geoff About His Japanese Net-Nets

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