Learn Investing Secrets

So, in the moment, when you are in a cash crunch and seemingly have no other place to go, you will yank your retirement savings. Further, you will be cognizant of putting yourself into situations where you might risk those long term savings.

The alternative is to invest long-term, make progress, encounter a short-term cash crunch, yank out your retirement funds, survive the problem, invest long-term again, make progress, encounter yet another short-term cash crunch, yank out your retirement funds to get relief'

If you're locked into an investment cycle like this, your retirement savings have not been growing consistently over the years, and it's not just the market.

If you’re like many people, your retirement savings have not been growing consistently over the years. We’re not referring to the wild fluctuations in the stock market, but rather the fluctuations in our short-term needs. Every once in a while, it just seems like a good idea to yank ALL those retirement savings out and pay for something.

You might need to pay for a down payment. You might need to pay off some credit card debt that’s nagging at you. You might want to ‘bugger off to Europe’ as Rick did some years ago. You know it’s not a good idea financially, but you do it anyway. Retirement savings are not designed to bail us out when we need this kind of short-term cash infusion but if it’s there…

As financial advisors, we have our ideals. Ideally, you should put retirement funds away and ‘leave it there’. Ideally you should never touch it at all, even when you retire! Why? whereas it is the ‘earnings’ from the nest egg that you should be using, never the principal. As we heard one person suggest recently, your principal is like your ‘goose’, and you never kill the goose, considering then you’re eliminating all those future ‘golden eggs’ (interest/earnings) it will lay.

As financial advisors, one way we try to prevent people from yanking out their retirement savings is by ensuring there are other ‘short-term’ funds indwelling for emergencies. These are meant to act as a glazer zone opposite to the yankers. It helps, but it doesn’t eternally work.

One problem is that a distant retirement will never be more urgent than the current cash demands you have. It’s impossible. How can long-term demands be more urgent than a current crisis? So what stops you from yanking out those retirement funds? Their convictions? Simple arithmetic? A more viable alternative?

When a is bent on yanking out their retirement savings to pay off, for example, some credit card debt, telling them how much they’re going to lose in retirement income in 25 years time doesn’t seem to work. Even telling them how much the tax bill is going to be next year can pale in backup to the relief the person is seeking from the headache over their current debt crisis.

So, the question is how can we provide ‘relief’ and still keep the retirement funds intact? Look at a debt consolidation loan? Review the person’s cash flow and create a debt repayment program? Maybe this will work for a minority of people. In the real world, when people are looking for relief, however, they are looking for relief NOW!!! The easiest way is to yank to retirement funds and be done with it.

So, in the moment, when you are in a cash crunch and seemingly have no other place to go, you will yank your retirement savings. Unless you have imminent the problem and ‘pre-decided’ that under no total environment will you avenue your retirement savings. In this way, you will do a pre-emptive strike on bad financial moves. Further, you will be knowing of putting yourself into situations where you might risk those long term savings.

The copy is to invest long-term, make progress, encounter a short-term cash crunch, yank out your retirement funds, survive the problem, invest long-term again, make progress, encounter yet quite another thing short-term cash crunch, yank out your retirement funds to get relief…

If you’re locked into an investment cycle like this, your retirement savings have not been growing consistently over the years, and it’s not just the market.

Someone who reads my blog sent me this email:

Geoff,

I came from Japan to US for business school in 2001. I became extremely intrigued by Buffett's value investment philosophy. I wanted to read everything available about his philosophy and became more and more familiar with his investment philosophy. And I personally pick stocks too. 

Anyway, about investment in Japan, I read your "Japanese stocks: Now 34% of My Portfolio - Plan to hold Them For At Least 1 Year", I see one part in "Buy Japan", you are talking about "Japan is barely a capitalist country." I see that you see Japan pretty well. They care much less about generating profits to shareholders than people do here in US. I imagine, that US investors who invest in Japan would feel slighted. They should be the boss, but not in Japan actually. 

Here is the key point why I wrote. You say "It’s definitely the most investor unfriendly place on the planet – excluding a few countries that seize private property". In my view, Japan is a country that would seize private property away from you. Not by legitimate ways, but more subtle but practical ways. Who has the largest control over Japanese economy? The system of capitalism?  Absolutely no. Bureaucrats have. They have tremendous control over businesses with both explicit laws and implicit powers. 

They have ways to drag down companies performance that they don't like. If a business is strong enough and brave enough to openly fight against bureaucrats, like Softbank did in the past, there is chance to win. But most businesses are afraid of this structural, chronic bully that deprives Japan of economic flexibility over the years. But interesting thing to me is, this chronic inefficiency sometimes works well, but sometimes doesn't. Like it worked in our 70s to 80s. But not in the later decades. My father always tells me that this is just like fascism that drove Japan in WWII all the way to final disaster. When it works well, we are invincible, but once the ship turns to a wrong way, we are unstoppable. Being said that, I wonder how, like you mentioned, pre-war southern states unraveled their woven bonds and connections and became part of the rest of the capitalism world. Losing the war changed their way of business life completely? Then, maybe Japan also needs dramatic change like that. 

In my view, the Japanese have strong fear of sticking out. If you stay in a crowd, you are invisible and no one would say anything. But if you stick out too much, bureaucrats will get you. Rising stars in business are always the easiest to go after for bureaucrats who are influenced by competitors. In US capitalism holds the power. This is the rule of the game and it seems that even the government cannot defy this rule. In Japan, bureaucrats rule the market most definitely. 

And most obviously, this system is not working for our prosperity. 

So, I just wanted to point out your assumption that Japan is not a country who seizes private property may not hold.

Shin

Talk to Geoff about Japanese Stocks

More Articles: