Time To Reshuffle



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Summary:
Mainly, stock that rises during the year will continue to rise heading into year end. On the other hand, stock that underperformed, will continue to be sold heading into year end.

Now, the year end is almost here. But, the November- December period is close enough for small investors to get the best possible price.

Having said that, I don't advocate buying any stocks that fall sharply during the year and selling any stocks that have risen a lot.


Article:

Is it time to juggle your portfolio? Perhaps. The year end is less than two months away. I have elaborated on the importance of fall season as the best time to rearrange your portfolio. Mainly, stock that rises during the year will continue to rise heading into year end. On the other hand, stock that underperformed, will continue to be sold heading into year end.

Now, the year end is verging on here. While there are no guarantee that you can buy at the best possible price, it is as hidden as you can get. Stock does not turn exactly on the last day of the year. Even when it does, investors will think its movement and make any choice move useless. But, the November- December period is upcoming enough for small investors to get the best possible price.

Having said that, I don't reply consumerism any stocks that fall sharply during the year and selling any stocks that have risen a lot. Fundamental still drives stock price movement in the long run. Therefore, what you need to do first is to determine the fair value of a estate stock that you want to invest. I have touched on this subject flickeringly in the past too.

If you are looking to invest, you can start researching stocks that have fallen throughout the year. Until year end, these stocks will continue to be depressed. Here are several list to help you look. Fannie Mae (FNM), Lexmark (LXK), Pier 1 Imports Inc. (PIR), Sharper Image Corp (SHRP), Seagate Technology (STX), JoAnn Stores (JAS), Take Two Interactive (TTWO) and Flagstar Bancorp (FBC).

If you own one of these stocks, you might want to continue holding them until the year ends. This way, you will pay taxes for fiscal year 2006 instead of 2005. Here are several list: Computer (AAPL), TXU Corp. (TXU), NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), Tesoro Petroleum (TSO) and Valero Energy (VLO).

Yesterday, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) announced it hired Ted Weschler as an investment manager. Weschler will manage between $1 billion and $3 billion of Berkshire’s money. He starts next year.

Weschler currently runs a hedge fund.

Here is his latest portfolio:

DirecTV (DTV): 25.98%

W.R. Grace (GRA): 25.11%

DaVita (DVA): 19.04%

Liberty Media (LCAPA): 11.83%

Valassis Communications (VCI): 7.74%

Cogent Communications (CCOI): 3.48%

Cincinnati Bell (CBB): 3.36%

WSFS Financial (WSFS): 3.04%

Fibertower (FTWR): 0.42%

These are long positions only. Weschler shorts stocks and uses leverage. For details, see Carol Loomis’s story.

Weschler is an investor after my own heart. His top 5 positions make up 90% of his portfolio. And he spent time at two of the companies he owns: W.R. Grace and WSFS Financial.

The W.R. Grace connection is well documented.

Weschler became a director of WSFS in 1992. He’s 50 now, so he must have become a director of WSFS at 31 or 32. By age 34, Weschler is shown as a director of 6 different companies. And described as “the general partner for several investment partnerships.”  

Weschler worked for Quad-C which controlled Thrift Investors LP which in turn owned 24.81% of WSFS Financial back in 1996 (the earliest date when WSFS filed with EDGAR). So, in reality, Weschler was WSFS’s biggest shareholder as far back as the 1990s.

This supports the general impression that Weschler – like Buffett – buys what he knows. He holds few stocks. And he has relationships with some of these companies going back many, many years.

Talk to Geoff About Ted Weschler



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