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It seems, SPX will continue to consolidate, short-term, above several strong (multi-year) support levels at around 1,165 (explained in previous articles) and then rally. The high recent inflation data may be a temporary phenomonen caused in large part by transportation bottlenecks in the Gulf region after hurricane Katrina. Moreover, lower energy prices will shift consumption from energy into non-energy products and lower production costs. It seems likely SPX will trade between roughly 1,170 and 1,200, short-term, and then retest the high (for the third time) at about 1,250 later this year. Article: The stock market fell sharply in October after that end-of-the quarter window dressing and on the inflation spike revealed in the September data. Consequently, the stock market no longer received the Fed's tightening cycle will end this year, and became fearful of stagflation. However, third quarter earnings so far have generally beat expectations, in what was expected to be a slow quarter, inasmuch as of high energy prices. Both monetary and fiscal policies remain stimulative. The FOMC raised the Fed's Fund Rate from 1% to 3.75%, on small 25 call moves, over the past 16 months, onward with a steady policy of "jawboning" to keep inflation expectations low. A neutral stance may be atop 5%. So, the FOMC may continue to tighten well into next year. The Bush executive arm tax cuts are still intact, and the damage by hurricane Katrina will increase government expenditures. Oil prices fell here $60 a whisk last week, for the first time in here and there three months, and beyond reach at $60.63 Friday. Economic growth has slowed to a more sustainable rate of haphazard 3% real growth. The summer driving season and the worst of the hurricane season are over. Heating oil prices will be largely dependent on winter weather in the Northeast. The price of oil may stabilize at just over $50 a pack within the next few weeks. The card index downwards is an SPX weekly year-to-date chart. SPX is down for the year, at the lower range of a trading range, and somewhat oversold. The ADX and CCI indicators, in particular, suggest the market will rally into the end of the year. It seems, SPX will continue to consolidate, short-term, then several strong (multi-year) support levels at helter-skelter 1,165 (explained in previous articles) and then rally. The high recent inflation data may be a temporary phenomonen in large part by transportation bottlenecks in the Gulf region afterwards hurricane Katrina. Also, output and employment should pick-up, temporarily, with a improvement in government expenditures. Moreover, lower energy prices will shift consumption from energy into non-energy products and lower production costs. It seems likely SPX will trade mid roughly 1,170 and 1,200, short-term, and then retest the high (for the third time) at regarding 1,250 later this year. However, a final "wash-out" in late October is possible, where SPX closes the open gaps at 1,143 and 1,138, previously staging a powerful rally. So, unless SPX falls downgrade 1,165, it may be best to trade the volatile range with a stop at 1,165. Charts approachable at PeakTrader.com Forum Index Market Overview section. Become Pregnant. - Become Pregnant. I thought I was infertile Now I have 2 beautiful children, naturally conceived. You can too. The Silent Killer Exposed. - Discover How To Lower Blood Pressure Naturally. Affiliates: http:thesilentkillerexposed.com/affiliates.html. Article Index: | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
More Articles:1. Dollar Cost Averaging: Taking Some Volatility Out of the Portfolio By Glenn Dahlke Summary: Instead of buying at a single share price with a lump sum investment, dollar cost averaging buys when prices are both high and low, thus averaging the share price.There is some argument that dollar cost averaging (DCA) can actually inhibit the return on investment, and I have no disagreement with that argument. Secondly, short-term, dollar cost averaging often does not give the process enough time to show its true colors.Thus, in order … 2. "Over Reaction" and How It Hurts Us Traders By Larry Potter Summary: Too much upside Friday and Monday, followed by too much downside Wednesday.So, what we need to do is get excited about big up days AND big down days for trading, but not get caught up in the hype from overreactions. That means not buying XYZ after it has gained 10 points in two days and not thinking the world is ending when the averages take a hit for the day (of course several weeks at a time is a different story!) Look at over reactio… 3. Is Offshore Banking for You? By Peter Flowers Summary: Here are the basics you need to know to get started: Offshore bank accounts ' in order to establish a bank account offshore and still have complete confidentiality and privacy, you need to hold the bank account under an IBC (International Business Corporation). Offshore Jurisdictions ' A country that has very strict privacy laws that protect offshore bank accounts and offshore companies. Article: You’ve probably heard in the neighbou… 4. Time To Reshuffle By Hari Wibowo Summary: Mainly, stock that rises during the year will continue to rise heading into year end. On the other hand, stock that underperformed, will continue to be sold heading into year end.Now, the year end is almost here. But, the November- December period is close enough for small investors to get the best possible price.Having said that, I don't advocate buying any stocks that fall sharply during the year and selling any stocks that have risen … |